Latino Composition of Total Vote in California Congressional elections
The percentage of voters in the 2014 and 2018 elections who are Latino, identified by surname, language and country of origin.
|1 Denham defeated by 4.5%||CA-10||26 percent||18 percent|
|2 Valadao defeated .by 8%||CA-21||52 percent||44 percent|
|3 Knight defeated by 8.8%||CA-25||22 percent||15 percent|
|4 Kim defeated by 3%||CA-39||24 percent||17 percent|
|5 Walters defeated by 4%||CA-45||11 percent||8 percent|
|6 Rohrbacher defeated by 7%||CA-48||10 percent||7 percent|
|7 Harkey defeated by 13%||CA-49||12 percent||8 percent|
California was not alone. Latinos provided the margin of victory in seven more non-California districts that flipped where Latinos were over 10 %of the vote:
- Florida’s 26th district, Powell — defeated by 2%
- Florida’s 27th district, Salazar — defeated by 6%
- Arizona’s 2nd District, Peterson — defeated by 9.5%
- Texas’ 7th district, Culberson — defeated by 5%
- Texas’ 32nd district, Sessions — defeated by 6.5%
- New York’s 11th District and Donovan — defeated by 5%
- New Jersey’s 2nd District. Grossman — defeated by 7.7%
Both Senate seats that Democrats flipped in the November 2018 elections were in states with large Latino populations that provided the margin of victory: Arizona and Nevada. In Arizona’s 2018 Senate election, Democrats won by only 2.5% where Latinos made up 23% of the voters; Arizona Latinos voted for the Democrat by a margin of 69% to 32%. In Nevada, Republican Dean Heller was defeated by only 5% of the vote, where Latinos made up 19% of the voters; Nevada Latino voters voted Democrat by a margin of more than two to one, 67% to 30%.
Consider that in 2020, Republicans will need to defend twenty Senate seats. The most competitive among the twenty are Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Alabama, and Iowa. Arizona’s second Senate seat is in play in 2020. Latinos need to come out for Democrats to win. Similarly, Colorado’s voters are 16% Latino, In 2014 Republican Senator Gardner defeated Democratic Senator Mark Udall by a margin of 1.9 %. Latinos can provide the margin of victory in both states. Arizona and Colorado are essential to Democrats taking back the Senate. If the Democratic Party is going to take back the Senate, it will be because Latinos turn out in 2020. Passing DACA is central to providing Latinos a reason to be enthusiastic in 2020. The Democratic Party must show that 2020 is not a repeat of 2008.
Omitting DACA from budget negotiations is not a good idea. Democrats cannot afford to leave Latinos disappointed and disillusioned—again.